It took a while for the polls to catch up, because it’s hard enough to get Virginia voters to pay attention to off-year governor elections that come on the heels of a busy presidential and congressional election season, much less asking them to also study the candidates down-ticket and render any opinions on them more than a few days out. In the lieutenant governor race, this one has basically been over since May, when Republicans nominated E.W. The call here: McAuliffe 51, Cuccinelli 45, Sarvis 4. It’s also generous to assume that Cuccinelli can get basically all of that vote to come to him when it leaves Sarvis, when the polls that have asked Sarvis voters their second choices have indicated that a slight majority of those voters, if they are to peel away, would actually pull away for McAuliffe, not Cuccinelli. It’s accurate to expect Sarvis to fade back to the 4-5 percent range, and even that may be generous when the votes are counted tomorrow night. The other sliver of possibility for Cuccinelli would be stealing away voters from Libertarian Robert Sarvis, who has been polling in the low-double digits in some polls, even as we all know that Sarvis will end up getting nowhere near that on Election Day. And the real world isn’t going to be kind to Cuccinelli tomorrow night. Which is nice if you can get it, the perfect electoral map, that is, everything breaking your way and against what would work out for your opponent.īut then there’s the real world. GOP leaders have been putting out there that they see a window for Cuccinelli to win, but that window is low turnout in Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads and solid turnout everywhere else. McAuliffe, the former Democratic National Committee chair, has a lead of at least six points in every legitimate poll taken of the race in the past week, with two polls putting his lead in the low- to mid-double digits.
It’s hard, really hard, to imagine Democrat Terry McAuliffe not winning the 2013 Virginia governor’s race, and by a relatively safe margin. Join Our Telegram channel to stay up to date on breaking news coverage
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